:Product: 0921RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Sep 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Sep 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (22 Sep, 23 Sep, 24 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 323 km/s at 21/2042Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
20/2247Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
21/1700Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 177 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (23 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (24 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Sep 071
Predicted   22 Sep-24 Sep 071/072/074
90 Day Mean        21 Sep 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Sep  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Sep  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep  006/005-008/010-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/30
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/30/30
Major-severe storm    10/25/40