:Product: 0924RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Sep 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 535 km/s at 24/0853Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 24/0240Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 24/0453Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1232 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (25 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Sep 074
Predicted   25 Sep-27 Sep 074/074/074
90 Day Mean        24 Sep 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep  017/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep  013/018-014/016-012/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/40
Minor Storm           20/10/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    50/45/60