:Product: 0926RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Sep 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
26/0038Z from Region 2773 (N27E18). There are currently 0 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27
Sep, 28 Sep, 29 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 585 km/s at 26/1707Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 26/1135Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 26/1202Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 3802 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (27 Sep, 28
Sep) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (29 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Sep 073
Predicted   27 Sep-29 Sep 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        26 Sep 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep  017/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep  018/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep  013/018-015/022-028/040

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/45/30
Minor Storm           25/25/40
Major-severe storm    05/05/25
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor Storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    60/65/80