:Product: 0927RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Sep 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep, 30 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 613 km/s at 27/2051Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 27/1959Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 27/2008Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 16736 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on days one and two (28 Sep, 29
Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (30 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Sep 074
Predicted   28 Sep-30 Sep 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        27 Sep 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep  018/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep  027/038-026/038-020/026

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/40
Minor Storm           45/40/30
Major-severe storm    25/25/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    85/80/75