:Product: 0928RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Sep 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (29 Sep, 30 Sep, 01 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 660 km/s at 28/0016Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 27/2125Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 27/2135Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 15792 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels with an outside chance for a
major storm on day one (29 Sep), quiet to minor storm levels on day two
(30 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Sep 074
Predicted   29 Sep-01 Oct 074/074/074
90 Day Mean        28 Sep 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep  016/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Sep  025/038
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct  026/038-020/025-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/30
Minor Storm           40/30/15
Major-severe storm    25/10/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor Storm           15/20/30
Major-severe storm    80/75/45