:Product: 0929RSGA.txt :Issued: 2020 Sep 29 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2020 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 678 km/s at 29/0012Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 28/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 28/2353Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13675 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (30 Sep), quiet to active levels on day two (01 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (02 Oct). III. Event probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Sep 073 Predicted 30 Sep-02 Oct 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 29 Sep 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep 021/031 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep 028/038 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 021/020-013/015-011/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/30/10 Minor Storm 30/15/01 Major-severe storm 10/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/15/20 Minor Storm 20/30/20 Major-severe storm 75/45/10