:Product: 1008RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Oct 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct, 11 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 421 km/s at 07/2322Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
07/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
07/2302Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1081 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct, 11
Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Oct 072
Predicted   09 Oct-11 Oct 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        08 Oct 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct  005/005-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10