:Product: 1016RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Oct 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
16/1511Z from Region 2774 (S24, L=313). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17
Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 332 km/s at 16/1159Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
16/0616Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
16/1940Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 196 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct, 19
Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Oct 075
Predicted   17 Oct-19 Oct 075/075/073
90 Day Mean        16 Oct 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10