:Product: 1017RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Oct 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18
Oct, 19 Oct, 20 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 334 km/s at 17/1124Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
17/1307Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
17/0429Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 321 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (18 Oct, 19 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (20 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Oct 073
Predicted   18 Oct-20 Oct 073/073/073
90 Day Mean        17 Oct 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/20