:Product: 1021RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Oct 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (22 Oct, 23 Oct, 24 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 416 km/s at 21/1945Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 21/0716Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
21/0828Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 251 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (22 Oct, 23
Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (24 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Oct 074
Predicted   22 Oct-24 Oct 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        21 Oct 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct  013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct  015/018-015/020-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    65/65/65