:Product: 1022RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Oct 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (23 Oct, 24 Oct, 25 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 410 km/s at 21/2132Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 22/0455Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
22/1157Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 168 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (23 Oct) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (24 Oct, 25 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Oct 075
Predicted   23 Oct-25 Oct 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        22 Oct 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct  015/020-013/015-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/35
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    65/65/50