:Product: 1023RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Oct 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (24 Oct, 25 Oct, 26 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 526 km/s at 23/1906Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 23/1621Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
23/1930Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 621 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and three (24 Oct,
26 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day two (25 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Oct 072
Predicted   24 Oct-26 Oct 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        23 Oct 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct  009/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct  015/020-012/015-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/40
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    65/50/65