:Product: 1025RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Oct 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (26 Oct, 27 Oct, 28 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 593 km/s at 25/0131Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 25/0536Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
25/1556Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 5668 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (26 Oct), quiet to
active levels on day two (27 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (28 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Oct 074
Predicted   26 Oct-28 Oct 074/072/070
90 Day Mean        25 Oct 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct  016/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct  013/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct  016/020-012/015-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/30
Minor Storm           25/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    65/45/40