:Product: 1027RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Oct 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Oct,
29 Oct, 30 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 591 km/s at 26/2247Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 27/1128Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
26/2104Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 19940 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (28 Oct, 29 Oct)
and quiet levels on day three (30 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Oct 082
Predicted   28 Oct-30 Oct 082/082/082
90 Day Mean        27 Oct 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct  015/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct  010/010-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    40/30/25