:Product: 1028RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Oct 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Oct,
30 Oct, 31 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 536 km/s at 27/2214Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 28/1458Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
28/1432Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 21570 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Oct) and quiet levels
on days two and three (30 Oct, 31 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Oct 088
Predicted   29 Oct-31 Oct 088/088/088
90 Day Mean        28 Oct 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/25/25