:Product: 1029RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Oct 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Oct,
31 Oct, 01 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 516 km/s at 29/0409Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 29/1239Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
29/1653Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 15796 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Oct), quiet levels on
day two (31 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Oct 085
Predicted   30 Oct-01 Nov 088/088/082
90 Day Mean        29 Oct 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct  009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct  011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov  008/008-006/005-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/30
Minor Storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    30/25/45