:Product: 1030RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Oct 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Oct,
01 Nov, 02 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 455 km/s at 30/0607Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8657 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (31 Oct, 02
Nov) and quiet to active levels on day two (01 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Oct 080
Predicted   31 Oct-02 Nov 080/080/078
90 Day Mean        30 Oct 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct  008/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov  008/008-011/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/25
Minor Storm           05/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    30/45/30