:Product: 1031RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Oct 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (01 Nov) and expected to
be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day two (02 Nov)
and expected to be very low on day three (03 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 440 km/s at 31/0535Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 31/0921Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
31/0939Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 7325 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (02 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (03 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Oct 077
Predicted   01 Nov-03 Nov 078/075/072
90 Day Mean        31 Oct 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov  011/012-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/15
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    45/30/25