:Product: 1103RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Nov 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04
Nov, 05 Nov, 06 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 395 km/s at 03/0424Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
03/1051Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
03/0932Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 637 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (04 Nov, 05 Nov) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (06 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Nov 083
Predicted   04 Nov-06 Nov 083/083/083
90 Day Mean        03 Nov 073

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/25