:Product: 1107RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Nov 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08
Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 541 km/s at 07/0416Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
07/0250Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
07/0651Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 967 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov, 10
Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Nov 091
Predicted   08 Nov-10 Nov 092/092/090
90 Day Mean        07 Nov 073

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10