:Product: 1108RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Nov 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
08/0115Z from Region 2781 (S23E03). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09
Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 493 km/s at 07/2336Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 08/1632Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
08/0510Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 980 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11
Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Nov 090
Predicted   09 Nov-11 Nov 090/088/086
90 Day Mean        08 Nov 074

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10