:Product: 1109RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Nov 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (10 Nov, 11 Nov)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (12 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 454 km/s at 09/0025Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
09/2052Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
09/1358Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 820 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12
Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Nov 090
Predicted   10 Nov-12 Nov 090/090/090
90 Day Mean        09 Nov 074

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov  001/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/20