:Product: 1111RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Nov 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
11/1912Z from Region 2782 (S31E64). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Nov,
13 Nov, 14 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 354 km/s at 11/1939Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
11/2059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
11/1936Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2248 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Nov) and quiet levels
on days two and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Nov 088
Predicted   12 Nov-14 Nov 088/088/088
90 Day Mean        11 Nov 074

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov  000/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov  007/008-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20