:Product: 1112RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Nov 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
12/0227Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Nov,
14 Nov, 15 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 435 km/s at 12/2027Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
11/2117Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -1 nT at
12/1909Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 535 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Nov 085
Predicted   13 Nov-15 Nov 085/085/085
90 Day Mean        12 Nov 074

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov  005/005-008/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/20/20