:Product: 1113RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Nov 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Nov,
15 Nov, 16 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 443 km/s at 13/0341Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
12/2354Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
13/0048Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 221 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (14 Nov, 15 Nov)
and quiet levels on day three (16 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Nov 082
Predicted   14 Nov-16 Nov 082/080/078
90 Day Mean        13 Nov 074

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov  008/008-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/10