:Product: 1115RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Nov 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (16 Nov) and
expected to be very low on days two and three (17 Nov, 18 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 479 km/s at 15/0241Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
15/0513Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
14/2234Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 286 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Nov, 17 Nov, 18
Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Nov 079
Predicted   16 Nov-18 Nov 075/072/072
90 Day Mean        15 Nov 075

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov  006/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10