:Product: 1116RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Nov 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (17 Nov, 18 Nov, 19 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 479 km/s at 16/0330Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
16/0345Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
16/0808Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 482 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Nov, 18 Nov, 19
Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Nov 077
Predicted   17 Nov-19 Nov 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        16 Nov 075

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov  005/005-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10