:Product: 1120RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Nov 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
20/1845Z. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Nov,
22 Nov, 23 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 398 km/s at 20/0836Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 19/2213Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
20/0104Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 178 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Nov) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Nov 082
Predicted   21 Nov-23 Nov 082/082/085
90 Day Mean        20 Nov 075

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov  007/008-014/015-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/40/30
Minor Storm           05/20/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    30/55/45