:Product: 1121RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Nov 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Nov,
23 Nov, 24 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 478 km/s at 21/2027Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 21/1646Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
21/1848Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 221 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (22 Nov, 23 Nov) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (24 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Nov 085
Predicted   22 Nov-24 Nov 085/087/089
90 Day Mean        21 Nov 075

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov  016/018-010/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor Storm           20/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    55/45/25