:Product: 1122RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Nov 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
22/0927Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Nov,
24 Nov, 25 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 649 km/s at 22/1049Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 21/2212Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 22/0440Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 1002 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (23 Nov), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (24 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day
three (25 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Nov 088
Predicted   23 Nov-25 Nov 090/092/094
90 Day Mean        22 Nov 075

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov  019/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov  015/018-008/010-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/30
Minor Storm           20/10/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    60/40/45