:Product: 1124RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Nov 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
24/0517Z from Region 2785 (S20E44). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Nov,
26 Nov, 27 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 550 km/s at 23/2236Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2375 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (25 Nov,
26 Nov, 27 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
Class M    10/10/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Nov 100
Predicted   25 Nov-27 Nov 100/100/100
90 Day Mean        24 Nov 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov  007/008-007/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    35/40/30