:Product: 1128RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Nov 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Nov,
30 Nov, 01 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 28/0004Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 28/1454Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
28/0139Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1673 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov, 01
Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Nov 110
Predicted   29 Nov-01 Dec 108/108/106
90 Day Mean        28 Nov 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10