:Product: 1130RSGA.txt :Issued: 2020 Nov 30 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2020 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 577 km/s at 30/2045Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 30/0718Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 30/0718Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 30/1950Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 786 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (01 Dec, 02 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (03 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03 Dec). III. Event probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec Class M 25/25/25 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Nov 109 Predicted 01 Dec-03 Dec 110/110/105 90 Day Mean 30 Nov 079 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 008/012-011/012-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/10 Minor Storm 15/15/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 30/30/20 Major-severe storm 50/50/10