:Product: 1201RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Dec 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (02 Dec, 03 Dec, 04 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 490km/s at 01/1914Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
01/1744Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
30/2217Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6 pfu at 01/0655Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 594 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Dec) and quiet levels
on days two and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Dec 104
Predicted   02 Dec-04 Dec 105/100/095
90 Day Mean        01 Dec 079

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec  007/008-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/10/10
Minor Storm           15/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    50/10/10