:Product: 1202RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Dec 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
01/2320Z from Region 2786 (S17W27). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Dec,
04 Dec, 05 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 454 km/s at 01/0313Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
02/1613Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
01/2102Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5 pfu at 02/0620Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1529 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec, 05
Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Dec 105
Predicted   03 Dec-05 Dec 105/105/100
90 Day Mean        02 Dec 079

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10