:Product: 1205RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Dec 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
05/0038Z from Region 2790 (S23E12). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (06 Dec) and expected to
be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and
three (07 Dec, 08 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 419 km/s at 05/1237Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
05/1339Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
05/1825Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 768 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (06 Dec, 07 Dec, 08
Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
Class M    05/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Dec 100
Predicted   06 Dec-08 Dec 095/092/092
90 Day Mean        05 Dec 080

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec  001/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10