:Product: 1206RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Dec 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
06/1327Z from Region 2790 (S23W02). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Dec,
08 Dec, 09 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 397 km/s at 06/1937Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
06/2041Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
06/1955Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 839 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec, 09
Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Dec 091
Predicted   07 Dec-09 Dec 090/090/088
90 Day Mean        06 Dec 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec  004/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10