:Product: 1208RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Dec 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (09
Dec, 10 Dec, 11 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 455 km/s at 07/2121Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
08/2030Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
08/0123Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 496 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (09 Dec), active to
severe storm levels on day two (10 Dec) and unsettled to major storm
levels on day three (11 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Dec 082
Predicted   09 Dec-11 Dec 082/082/082
90 Day Mean        08 Dec 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec  011/015-028/040-018/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/15
Minor Storm           25/30/05
Major-severe storm    05/10/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    60/65/25