:Product: 1209RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Dec 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (10
Dec, 11 Dec, 12 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 462 km/s at 09/2001Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 09/1441Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
09/1545Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 558 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (10 Dec), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (11 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (12
Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Dec 082
Predicted   10 Dec-12 Dec 082/082/084
90 Day Mean        09 Dec 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec  011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec  028/040-018/025-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/15/10
Minor Storm           30/05/01
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    65/25/10