:Product: 1210RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Dec 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (11
Dec, 12 Dec, 13 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 596 km/s at 10/0219Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 10/0144Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
10/0204Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 182 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (11 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (12 Dec, 13 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Dec 082
Predicted   11 Dec-13 Dec 082/083/084
90 Day Mean        10 Dec 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec  011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec  010/012-007/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/20
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    50/30/30