:Product: 1214RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Dec 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
14/1437Z from Region 2792 (S22E39). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Dec,
16 Dec, 17 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 375 km/s at 13/2333Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
14/1346Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
14/1646Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 464 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (15 Dec, 16 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (17 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Dec 083
Predicted   15 Dec-17 Dec 083/083/084
90 Day Mean        14 Dec 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/20