:Product: 1215RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Dec 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Dec, 17 Dec, 18 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 365 km/s at 14/2312Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 289 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (16 Dec, 18 Dec) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (17 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Dec 083
Predicted   16 Dec-18 Dec 083/083/083
90 Day Mean        15 Dec 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec  006/005-007/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/10
Minor Storm           01/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    10/20/10