:Product: 1216RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Dec 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17
Dec, 18 Dec, 19 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 294 km/s at 16/1150Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
16/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
15/2358Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 245 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Dec) and quiet levels
on days two and three (18 Dec, 19 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Dec 082
Predicted   17 Dec-19 Dec 082/082/082
90 Day Mean        16 Dec 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec  007/008-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/10/10