:Product: 1221RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Dec 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (22
Dec, 23 Dec, 24 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 407 km/s at 21/1357Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 21/2042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
21/2056Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 265 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (22 Dec, 24 Dec)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (23 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Dec 080
Predicted   22 Dec-24 Dec 080/080/080
90 Day Mean        21 Dec 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Dec  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec  008/010-012/018-014/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/35
Minor Storm           05/20/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    30/55/50