:Product: 1226RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Dec 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27
Dec, 28 Dec, 29 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 460 km/s at 25/2132Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1006 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (27 Dec, 28 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (29 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Dec 088
Predicted   27 Dec-29 Dec 088/088/088
90 Day Mean        26 Dec 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Dec  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec  005/005-006/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/25