:Product: 1227RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Dec 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28
Dec, 29 Dec, 30 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 546 km/s at 27/1429Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
27/1537Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
27/0330Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1659 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (28 Dec, 30 Dec) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (29 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Dec 088
Predicted   28 Dec-30 Dec 088/088/088
90 Day Mean        27 Dec 084

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Dec  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec  006/005-008/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/10
Minor Storm           01/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    10/25/10