:Product: 1231RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Dec 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 366 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (01 Jan, 02
Jan) and expected to be very low on day three (03 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 498 km/s at 30/2114Z.  Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 560 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (01 Jan, 02 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (03 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Dec 081
Predicted   01 Jan-03 Jan 081/080/079
90 Day Mean        31 Dec 084

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan  005/005-006/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/25