:Product: 0101RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jan 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 1 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (02 Jan) and
expected to be very low on days two and three (03 Jan, 04 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 381 km/s at 01/0012Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 553 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (02 Jan, 04 Jan) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (03 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jan 080
Predicted   02 Jan-04 Jan 080/079/079
90 Day Mean        01 Jan 084

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan  006/005-008/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/10
Minor Storm           01/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    10/25/10