:Product: 0102RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jan 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 2 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (03 Jan, 04 Jan, 05 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 360 km/s at 02/0322Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 573 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (03 Jan, 05
Jan) and quiet levels on day two (04 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Jan 082
Predicted   03 Jan-05 Jan 080/080/078
90 Day Mean        02 Jan 084

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan  008/008-005/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    25/10/25