:Product: 0103RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jan 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 3 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan, 06 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 380 km/s at 02/2327Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 629 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (04 Jan), quiet to active levels on day
two (05 Jan) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (06 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jan 080
Predicted   04 Jan-06 Jan 080/078/078
90 Day Mean        03 Jan 084

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan   001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan  005/005-007/010-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/40
Minor Storm           01/10/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    10/40/60